Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. . Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. This claim is basically absurd. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. To accept cookies, click continue. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. I believe in a time cycle. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. 2016 Trump. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. It was easy. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Jim Hoft. We have become so divided. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. 'I Should Start Voting'. At least Biden is honest, he said. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I kind of keep in my bubble. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Port Clinton, Ohio. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. He isnt so sure about Biden. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. A lot of people think things are. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. She shook her head at the high price of gas. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Two states have announced recounts. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. This is a high farming community.. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! I would never vote any other way. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. We were as far down to five cooks last year. Our roads need to be fixed. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. I think thats what the world needed. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Required fields are marked *. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Im not happy with either party. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. And it can happen.. Its gone, Jacobs said. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. We need creative leadership, Miller said. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. He says hell vote for Trump. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. By Cara Ding. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Your email address will not be published. On . Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. Pre-performance Lobby events. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Were a service industry-oriented area. Its horrible. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Bremer County, Iowa This includes personalizing content and advertising. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. He didnt vote in 2016 either. They need to take care of the older people here. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. He cares about the American people.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. The morale of the people up there is bad. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. I think its very political right now, honestly. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. I think it worked out without me.. We believe that there are two main reasons. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Its just not that great, Paul said. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. SACRAMENTO . He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Im looking at both sides of it. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. That is a very good thing to have. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from.
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